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wholesale silver jewelry supply wide rings Yin Zhongqing, deputy chairman of the Finance and Economics Committee of the National People's Congress, analyzed that in 2021 and the entire "Twelfth Five -Year Plan" period, my country still has favorable conditions for maintaining stable and rapid economic development. In the next five years, the urbanization and industrialization of the medium and long -term development momentum is sufficient, the domestic funds are relatively abundant, and the macro -control room has a large room. Zhang Xiaojing, director of the Macro Room of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also held an optimistic view: "The situation of economic growth in 2021 is not too big, and basically maintains 8 %." He said that although prices and asset prices may have a great impact, overall economic growth will not be impacted too much. Zhu Baoliang's prediction: GDP increases by about 9.5 %, the consumer price increase is about 4 %, and 10 million new employment in urban and towns is generally comparable to 2021. The international revenue and expenditure situation improves. Zhang Liqun forecast: The GDP growth rate in 2021 is likely to be less than 8 %, which is more than two percentage points from 2021. If corresponding measures are taken, based on my country's strong development potential, the GDP growth rate may rise to about 9 %. The four uncertain factors are deployed in accordance with the Central Economic Work Conference, and the monetary policy is shifted to "stable" without changing the "positive" fiscal policy tone. This new policy combination of "one loose and stable" aims to cope with the complicated economic situation of 2021. The factors of the four aspects may be the hidden concerns of China's economic development in 2021. First, China's economy has not entered the track of a virtuous cycle of stable growth. The economic stimulus policy implemented in the past two years has expired, and the problem of weakening the effect has not yet expired. The income of urban and rural residents is difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the new consumption hotspots have not yet been formed, and further expansion of consumption has been restricted. Folk investment has not yet been substantially launched, and local supporting funds are difficult to raise funds. The government -led investment scale is facing sustainable challenges. The driving force for domestic demand is still in an important mark from policy stretching to autonomous growth. The growth rate of investment has decreased, and the foundation of rapid growth is unstable. The company's willingness and capabilities of the enterprise are insufficient, of which real estate enterprises invest in the risk of falling off. In the face of relatively universal production capacity, uncertain market demand prospects, and constraints of financing difficulties, and industry access management, investment is not active enough. The second is the risk of structural inflation. Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, moderate loose monetary policy has provided strong financial support for driving the Chinese economy's recovery. At the same time, it has also laid a solid monetary foundation for inflation expectations. Recently, the prices of consumer goods for residents have begun to rise, and the price of global basic products has also been transmitted to China. The import price of commodities with high exterior depending on the exterior is rising. Garlic, mung beans, ginger and other turns to increase prices, gold, jewelry, art and other enthusiastic hype. Excessive liquidity, soaring asset prices, upward price of consumer goods for residents, and input inflation, can lead to serious structural inflation. The power to promote inflation in 2021 is basically composed of rising food prices, and in 2021, it will evolve from a force to three forces, that is, the driving force for rising food prices will not disappear. The "Salary One Price Spiral" formed by inflation and the increase in wages has also begun to become a new driving force. If the power of inflation in 2021 changes from one to three, this year's inflation rate will be significantly higher than in 2021. The increase in the CPI will increase. It may reach 5 % to 6 %. Third, the stimulus of macro policies on the economy weakens. Although as the beginning of the "Twelfth Five -Year Plan" start in 2021, there will be more new projects, but due to the end of the economic package plan in the previous two years, the driving force for investment will weaken. Power will also weaken. Fourth, the stable monetary policy tone is facing unprecedented difficulties. At present, there is a contradiction in my country's economic operation: the main contradictions of the real economy are insufficient demand; the main problem of the virtual economy, including the asset market, is the risk of lurking too fast demand. The internal connection between the two is that the demand for the real economy is insufficient to promote the flow of currency to the virtual economy and asset market, which stimulates the expansion of related demand. Opening the transformation door transformation is the essence of economic growth in 2021. Chang Xiuze, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, defines the current "overall or comprehensive development model" as the third wave of transformation. He believes that this is another major and profound transformation after the "social system transformation" in the 1940s and 1950s and the "economic system transformation" began in 1978. Transformation needs to make breakthroughs in related fields, and it needs to be the leader of paths in the next few years. The first is to increase the intensity of domestic demand and stimulate consumption. Expanding domestic demand and consumer policy, social security, wage policy, etc., the latter is the focus of expanding domestic demand. It is necessary to make consumption, exports, and investment a coordinated development of carriage for the economy. The second is to promote the development of the tertiary industry in the industrial structure. my country is currently in the middle and late stages of industrialization. The rapid development of the second industry is an important factor in driving the economy, but growth is restricted by environmental, resources and other conditions. If the second industry continues the current development, the uncertainty of energy and resources will bring risks. Therefore, it is necessary to vigorously promote the development of the tertiary industry, drive economic growth, drive employment growth, and achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. Third, the connotation of economic development should be shifted from the number of resources to the quality growth. Promote economic growth through scientific and technological innovation and management level. For example, in the introduction of foreign capital, more high -end manufacturing and projects with high -end management levels are introduced to improve the level of use of foreign capital. Fourth, there should be some improvement in adjusting the structure. The first is price reform, whether it is resources, energy prices, or labor prices. Both must return to the market; followed by fiscal and tax reform, including the adjustment of fiscal and tax adjustments that match the value -added tax adjustment, local financial resources matching, and the adjustment of state -owned enterprises and monopoly enterprises, and the adjustment of financial and tax reduction related to energy saving and emission reduction; The old road that cannot be fully followed by the GDP assessment needs to increase social indicators, such as, medical, harmonious status, etc. closely related to the people's livelihood. Experts and scholars studying Chinese economy have also paid great attention to the transformation of the Chinese economy. Bernard Bowor, the chief global economist of Economic Outlook Group, predicts that China's economic growth will gradually slow down. It is even like the winter of nature, which helps promote the survival of the fittest of micro -commercial entities and help to correct macroeconomic policies. China's economic development has reached a critical point, and new breakthroughs are required to achieve new breakthroughs in economic transformation and market openness and supporting social reforms. Regarding economic transformation, Philip Sartre, vice president and chief economist of the International Financial Association, said that China must learn from Japan and learn from it. Japan became a rapidly growing export -oriented economy in the 1960s and 1980s, but he believes that due to the delay of time, Japan's transformation after a high -speed growth was unsuccessful. China needs to act as soon as possible to promote consumption growth and domestic investment, and achieve economic transformation. Philip Levi, a senior researcher at the American Institute of Enterprise Research, believes that economic transformation also requires a series of supporting social reforms. These supporting reforms include building a social network, increasing household income by increasing the proportion of corporate profit distribution, and providing higher through reform financial systems to provide higher higher Public investment returns, at the same time make companies only bear reasonable and authentic financing costs. Yin Zhongqing, deputy chairman of the Finance and Economics Committee of the National People's Congress, analyzed that in 2021 and the entire "Twelfth Five -Year Plan" period, my country still has favorable conditions for maintaining stable and rapid economic development. In the next five years, the urbanization and industrialization of the medium and long -term development momentum is sufficient, the domestic funds are relatively abundant, and the macro -control room has a large room. Zhang Xiaojing, director of the Macro Room of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also held an optimistic view: "The situation of economic growth in 2021 is not too big, and basically maintains 8 %." He said that although prices and asset prices may have a great impact, overall economic growth will not be impacted too much. Zhu Baoliang's prediction: GDP increases by about 9.5 %, the consumer price increase is about 4 %, and 10 million new employment in urban and towns is generally comparable to 2021. The international revenue and expenditure situation improves. Zhang Liqun forecast: The GDP growth rate in 2021 is likely to be less than 8 %, which is more than two percentage points from 2021. If corresponding measures are taken, based on my country's strong development potential, the GDP growth rate may rise to about 9 %. The four uncertain factors are deployed in accordance with the Central Economic Work Conference, and the monetary policy is shifted to "stable" without changing the "positive" fiscal policy tone. This new policy combination of "one loose and stable" aims to cope with the complicated economic situation of 2021. The factors of the four aspects may be the hidden concerns of China's economic development in 2021. First, China's economy has not entered the track of a virtuous cycle of stable growth. The economic stimulus policy implemented in the past two years has expired, and the problem of weakening the effect has not yet expired. The income of urban and rural residents is difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the new consumption hotspots have not yet been formed, and further expansion of consumption has been restricted. Folk investment has not yet been substantially launched, and local supporting funds are difficult to raise funds. The government -led investment scale is facing sustainable challenges. The driving force for domestic demand is still in an important mark from policy stretching to autonomous growth. The growth rate of investment has decreased, and the foundation of rapid growth is unstable. The company's willingness and capabilities of the enterprise are insufficient, of which real estate enterprises invest in the risk of falling off. In the face of relatively universal production capacity, uncertain market demand prospects, and constraints of financing difficulties, and industry access management, investment is not active enough. The second is the risk of structural inflation. Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, moderate loose monetary policy has provided strong financial support for driving the Chinese economy's recovery. At the same time, it has also laid a solid monetary foundation for inflation expectations. Recently, the prices of consumer goods for residents have begun to rise, and the price of global basic products has also been transmitted to China. The import price of commodities with high exterior depending on the exterior is rising. Garlic, mung beans, ginger and other turns to increase prices, gold, jewelry, art and other enthusiastic hype. Excessive liquidity, soaring asset prices, upward price of consumer goods for residents, and input inflation, can lead to serious structural inflation. The power to promote inflation in 2021 is basically composed of rising food prices, and in 2021, it will evolve from a force to three forces, that is, the driving force for rising food prices will not disappear. The "Salary One Price Spiral" formed by inflation and the increase in wages has also begun to become a new driving force. If the power of inflation in 2021 changes from one to three, this year's inflation rate will be significantly higher than in 2021. The increase in the CPI will increase. It may reach 5 % to 6 %. Third, the stimulus of macro policies on the economy weakens. Although as the beginning of the "Twelfth Five -Year Plan" start in 2021, there will be more new projects, but due to the end of the economic package plan in the previous two years, the driving force for investment will weaken. Power will also weaken. Fourth, the stable monetary policy tone is facing unprecedented difficulties. At present, there is a contradiction in my country's economic operation: the main contradictions of the real economy are insufficient demand; the main problem of the virtual economy, including the asset market, is the risk of lurking too fast demand. The internal connection between the two is that the demand for the real economy is insufficient to promote the flow of currency to the virtual economy and asset market, which stimulates the expansion of related demand. Opening the transformation door transformation is the essence of economic growth in 2021. Chang Xiuze, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, defines the current "overall or comprehensive development model" as the third wave of transformation. He believes that this is another major and profound transformation after the "social system transformation" in the 1940s and 1950s and the "economic system transformation" began in 1978. Transformation needs to make breakthroughs in related fields, and it needs to be the leader of paths in the next few years. The first is to increase the intensity of domestic demand and stimulate consumption. Expanding domestic demand and consumer policy, social security, wage policy, etc., the latter is the focus of expanding domestic demand. It is necessary to make consumption, exports, and investment a coordinated development of carriage for the economy. The second is to promote the development of the tertiary industry in the industrial structure. my country is currently in the middle and late stages of industrialization. The rapid development of the second industry is an important factor in driving the economy, but growth is restricted by environmental, resources and other conditions. If the second industry continues the current development, the uncertainty of energy and resources will bring risks. Therefore, it is necessary to vigorously promote the development of the tertiary industry, drive economic growth, drive employment growth, and achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. Third, the connotation of economic development should be shifted from the number of resources to the quality growth. Promote economic growth through scientific and technological innovation and management level. For example, in the introduction of foreign capital, more high -end manufacturing and projects with high -end management levels are introduced to improve the level of use of foreign capital. Fourth, there should be some improvement in adjusting the structure. The first is price reform, whether it is resources, energy prices, or labor prices. Both must return to the market; followed by fiscal and tax reform, including the adjustment of fiscal and tax adjustments that match the value -added tax adjustment, local financial resources matching, and the adjustment of state -owned enterprises and monopoly enterprises, and the adjustment of financial and tax reduction related to energy saving and emission reduction; The old road that cannot be fully followed by the GDP assessment needs to increase social indicators, such as, medical, harmonious status, etc. closely related to the people's livelihood. Experts and scholars studying Chinese economy have also paid great attention to the transformation of the Chinese economy. Bernard Bowor, the chief global economist of Economic Outlook Group, predicts that China's economic growth will gradually slow down. It is even like the winter of nature, which helps promote the survival of the fittest of micro -commercial entities and help to correct macroeconomic policies. China's economic development has reached a critical point, and new breakthroughs are required to achieve new breakthroughs in economic transformation and market openness and supporting social reforms. Regarding economic transformation, Philip Sartre, vice president and chief economist of the International Financial Association, said that China must learn from Japan and learn from it. Japan became a rapidly growing export -oriented economy in the 1960s and 1980s, but he believes that due to the delay of time, Japan's transformation after a high -speed growth was unsuccessful. China needs to act as soon as possible to promote consumption growth and domestic investment, and achieve economic transformation. Philip Levi, a senior researcher at the American Institute of Enterprise Research, believes that economic transformation also requires a series of supporting social reforms. These supporting reforms include building a social network, increasing household income by increasing the proportion of corporate profit distribution, and providing higher through reform financial systems to provide higher higher Public investment returns, at the same time make companies only bear reasonable and authentic financing costs.