What is the trend of gold in the future?

History will not be simply repeated, but it is always surprisingly similar. Gold and crude oil are no exception!
Is know that in the international market, gold and crude oil mainly uses US dollars to be priced. There is inextricable connection between gold and crude oil, which generally presents a strong positive relationship. Although sometimes the price fluctuations between the two are different, the overall trend is basically the same direction.
The influential factors are quite similar
Golden crude oil and rise and fall
In July 1944, the signing of the Bretton Forest Agreement laid the "US dollar-gold double hook mechanism", that is, the US dollar and gold linked. The currency of the member states is linked to the US dollar, and the adjustable fixed exchange rate system is implemented. Under this rule, international oil prices and gold prices are generally maintained at a stable relationship of 1: 6, that is, 1 ounce of gold can be exchanged for 6 barrels of crude oil. Because 1 ounce of gold can be exchanged with $ 35, crude oil prices are stable between $ 5-7/barrel.
The 1970s and 1980s, the world has experienced the disintegration of the Bretton forest system, the depreciation of the two rounds of dollars, and the two world oil crisis. The prices of gold and crude oil have continued to soar. The price of crude oil has also been several times to $ 35.
In 1981, after the gold and crude oil prices hit a record high, both dived. Since then, it has entered the cowhide market for nearly two decades. There is also a process of brief rebound, but it has not completely reversed the long -term decline of gold and crude oil prices.
111 century, gold prices and international crude oil prices have entered a wave of big bull markets, especially the price of gold prices is aggressive. Situation and plunge. Judging from historical experience, affected by the common factors such as the US dollar exchange rate and inflation, gold and crude oil have the characteristics of "preservation" and "risk aversion", which has become one of the few ideal investment targets in the world. Essence
Due to the unique and super scarce attributes of gold, the trend of gold prices is more stable, and as the foundation of industrial development, oil prices are more likely to be affected by factors such as international and political and natural disasters, which fluctuates violently, resulting in short -term short -term The positive correlation declines, and even negative correlation changes have occurred. From the perspective of medium- and long -term trends, the focus of international gold prices has risen steadily, and it has always been difficult, which has a significant support for international crude oil prices to a certain extent.
The historical background, although the historical background is different
In internal mechanisms,
At present, Europe and Japan may continue to fall into the quagmire of economic recession and cannot extricate themselves. The situation of high -speed growth in emerging market economies is also difficult to maintain, and it gradually returns to normal growth paths. Therefore, the global economic recovery has different pace, and even the development trend has severely differentiation, and the overall development seems to be weak. In order to stimulate their respective economy and avoid falling into the second decline, these countries seem to have forgotten the historical lessons of "inflation is fierce than tiger", and they are more willing to accept higher inflation goals. This year, it will maintain a loose policy environment. It is particularly worrying that the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party has re -administered and is committed to introducing a larger scale stimulus policy. For example, the central bank has basically compromised today, and Abe has fulfilled most of the established goals as scheduled, but it does not seem to be satisfied with satisfaction. , The so -called "desire is difficult to fill".
The policy of "neighbors" in Japan has caused dissatisfaction among the German Central Bank. Of course, the key depends on the attitude or eyes of the United States. In addition, China has clarified the policy of "new urbanization" as the main axis. The market expects a new round of investment to invest, and the plan to "double the national income" is also worth looking forward to, which will greatly stimulate domestic demand. The fuse of the new round of "racing to expand the easing policy" has been ignited, global currency liquidity may remain abundant, and it will have a significant support for the price of international commodities such as gold and crude oil.
Since the New Year, the gold price of gold has basically built a "W -bottom" form. Once a strong breakthrough of the neck line, or more than $ 1650 to $ 1700, it may mean that the establishment of a new wave of upward trends will be established And gradually advance to the front line of $ 1750 in the early stage. Correspondingly, US crude oil has also completely got rid of the box vibration range between $ 85 and $ 95 in the fourth quarter of 2012, effectively breaking the front line of $ 95.
At present, although the supply and demand of the crude oil market is generally loose due to the sharp increase in the US production, Saudi Arabia has reduced the oil output to the lowest level in one year. The continued moderate recovery of the US and China's economy is conducive to continuously increasing crude oil demand. It is expected that it is expected that it is expected The situation of excess supply and demand of international crude oil will gradually improve. Furthermore, the situation in the Middle East and North Africa is still turbulent, and the Iranian nuclear issue and the Syrian issue have not been resolved. Algerian Islamic militants are rampant and attacked the local oil and gas fields. Geographical political risks may be immediately supported to further support international oil prices. Therefore, the current upward trend of US crude oil is steady, and it is likely to challenge the important pressure level of the front line of $ 100 in the previous high. In short, once the uncertainty and risks of the external environment increase, gold and crude oil will be able to play the function of preservation and risk aversion, and it is understandable to be sought after by the market.

Pay content for time limit to check for freenAnswer the gold market is still in a long -term upward trend. However, according to a investment company, it still needs to spend the current consolidation period. Haywood analyst said in a report released on Tuesday (October 26) that they are reducing the price target from this year to 2022, but it is expected that the price will be higher after 2023. Judging from the latest estimates, Haywood analysts expect the average price of gold this year to be about 1,800 US dollars, slightly lower than the previously estimated $ 1,815. The company is expected to reduce the average gold price next year from the previous $ 1,900 to about $ 1,850. However, analysts said that by 2023, the average price of gold will be around 1900 US dollars, higher than the previously estimated $ 1,800. Analysts said that the recent adverse factors such as the US dollar strength and the rise in public debt yields. As interest rates are expected to increase, bond yields have been pushed up. The market is currently expected to tighten monetary policy, including reducing monthly bond purchase by the end of the year, and may be earlier in June. However, from the perspective of bullish factors, analysts said that the slowdown in economic growth and inflation have created a favorable environment for precious metals. "As economic growth slows down and inflation, we are worried that China and a wider global economy may fall into stagnation," analysts said in the report. "From a historical point of view, gold performed well in a stagflation environment, because inflation rises and market volatility support capital preservation, and the actual interest rate decline support opportunities and growth risk motivation. It is still constructive. However, gold is still a tangible, replaceable, and long -lasting value storage method. "When he made the above remarks, the gold market is still difficult to attract continuous rising momentum and is still trapped below 1,800 US dollars below $ 1,800 Essence On Tuesday, the December paid closed at $ 1792.70 on the day, down 0.78%. Although the price of gold may continue to be sluggish before 2022, Haywood analysts still believe that the undervalued mining value is stable. Analysts said: "Although the fundamentals of the mining sector are strong, including the market sector leading a leading -leading free cash flow income of about 6.85%, the mining sector is still at a historical low compared to gold and the overall market.

Gold's pricing power is in the United States. You can judge the gold trend of the US dollar. As long as the weak US dollar policy remains unchanged, the gold bull market will not end. The current rise of gold has not changed.